Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4673
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4673 · ORD → ROA
departs 8:19 PM CT · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ROA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
ROA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.