Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4697
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4697 · LGA → CAE
departs 12:29 PM ET · arrives 2:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
CAE (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.