Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4700
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4700 · DCA → RDU
departs 11:24 AM ET · arrives 12:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.