Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 4709 · ROC → BOS
departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 48%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ROC that day
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.