Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4710
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4710 · JFK → BNA
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.