Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4710
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4710 · JFK → BNA
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:21 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.