Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4712 · BNA → JFK
departs 8:43 AM CT · arrives 12:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.35 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.