Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4712
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4712 · BNA → JFK
departs 8:43 AM CT · arrives 12:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi forecast at BNA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.07 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.