Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4717 · BWI → ORD
departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 13%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.