Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4717
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4717 · BWI → ORD
departs 8:13 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.