Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4740 · JAX → ORD
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.