Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4740 · JAX → ORD
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 3:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.