Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4749
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4749 · PHL → ORF
departs 3:32 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.