Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4749
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4749 · PHL → ORF
departs 3:32 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.