Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4763
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4763 · DCA → PIT
departs 9:59 PM ET · arrives 11:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PIT that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.