Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4796
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4796 · DCA → PIT
departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PIT that day
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.