Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5638 · TVC → LGA
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
36%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.