Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5638 · TVC → LGA
departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±8 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
9%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.