Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5645
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5645 · DCA → MSN
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.