Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5649 · JFK → CMH
departs 9:50 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CMH that day
↑
9am departures from JFK are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.