Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 5649 · JFK → CMH
departs 9:50 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at JFK that day
↑
9am departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.