Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5659
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5659 · LGA → GRR
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.