Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5659
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5659 · LGA → GRR
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.