Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5699
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 5699 · JFK → DCA
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 22%
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 14%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.