Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5711 · MEM → LGA
departs 7:05 AM CT · arrives 10:56 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 633 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from MEM are usually not late
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 633 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.57 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.