Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5711 · MEM → LGA
departs 8:45 AM CT · arrives 12:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
MEM is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
8am departures from MEM are usually not late
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.