Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5779 · MEM → LGA
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
27%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
27%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MEM that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
MEM usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.30 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.