Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5779
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5779 · MEM → LGA
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.