Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5783 · DCA → BNA
departs 10:01 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.