Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5804 · JFK → ACK
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 2:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.