tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5804 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

YX 5804 · JFK → ACK

departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 2:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
7% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 4.6d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ACK?

  1. On time or early
    92%
  2. 15–30 min late
    <1%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.