Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5811 · RIC → LGA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.