Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 5828 · CLT → LGA
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 64%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.