Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
YX 5830 · ATL → HHH
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 3:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 11%
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HHH
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.