Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5853 · LGA → MSN
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.