Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5853 · LGA → MSN
departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.