Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 5856 · JFK → ORF
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.