Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5856 · JFK → ORF
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at ORF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.