Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5863 LANDED 11:14 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

YX 5863 · DCA → BOS

took off 10:15 PM ET · landed 11:14 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

BOS (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5863 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time