Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1011 LANDED 7:14 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 1011 · MSP → ORD

took off 6:23 AM CT · landed 7:14 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1011 · MSP → ORD

Odds over time