Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1038 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1038 · CLT → ORD

departs 9:42 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.31 in

ORD (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1038 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?