Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1046 LANDED 12:30 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 1046 · ATL → MIA

took off 11:05 AM ET · landed 12:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1046 · ATL → MIA

Odds over time