Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1133 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1133 · DFW → PHX

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.77 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1133 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?