Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1133 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1133 · DFW → PHX

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 9:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1133 · DFW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?