Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1163 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1163 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?