Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1177 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1177 · DFW → DCA

departs 8:50 AM CT · arrives 12:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,033 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1177 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?