Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1184SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1184 · PHX → MIA
departs 8:49 AM MT · arrives 4:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
20%chance · ±2 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.