AA 1222 · PHX → MIA

took off 4:10 PM MT · expected to land 10:55 PM ET (scheduled 3:59 PM MT → 11:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1222 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?