Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1243 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1243 · DFW → SAN

departs 7:02 PM CT · arrives 8:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±9 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1243 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?