Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

departs 8:43 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.13 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?